Tag Archive for: MNWX

Severe Weather: Wed July 11th/Thu July 12th

Posted: 8:30pm Wednesday 7/11/18.

It’s been a long time! As you can see- I just launched a new website here, and I plan to keep up the blog more- I promise!

Now- on to business.

Severe weather may be an issue overnight Wednesday into Thursday, and depending on how much leftover AM convection (storms) and cloudcover we have, it could alter the dynamics for Thursday. As of just recently, a Tornado Watch was issued for Northern Minnesota- so it looks to be a long evening up there.

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Update on Snowfall Potential for January 11th & 12th

Hey everyone- trying to avoid the hype here- and I know all of you are as frustrated as I am about none of these systems really panning out. After all- what is winter for in MN if we don’t have snow? I agree– very frustrating.

So- we saw this storm coming before it was even on shore- and now that it is- some things are coming into play more.

There’s a few technical things to consider, and when considering them, we have to look at model runs- which even right now, still have variables. So- with all of these complex factors in mind- snowfall forecasting ends up being very challenging, as each one of these variables evolves with each model run, and then there’s the realtime conditions when the storm actually moves in!

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October 2015

Happy Saturday!

The roller coaster of fall temps continues! We had a hard freeze last evening in the metro and nearly all of MN–so if you left any plants outside, they may be in trouble. Even though we got cold, and remain cold today, we start to moderate tomorrow through Monday.  Monday will be a warmer day. This time of year, usually the warmer days are quite windy also, so keep that in mind. Some parts of SW MN could be in the mid 70’s to near 80 on Monday. In MSP, upper 60’s to low 70’s look possible. Some indications are that it could be even warmer. Read more

Severe Weather Risk on Sat 8/22


Thanks for checking in.  There’s been a lot of chatter about the Severe Weather Risk for Tomorrow (Saturday 8/22/15), and for good reason–it seems like it could be an active day.  The NAM & GFS seem to have a good handle on it, and soon, some of the short term high-res models will be coming into play. For the sake of highlighting the event, I am taking a look at the NAM below–and giving a brief and to the point overview.  Many other factors come into play, and other models/data etc, but for the sake of simplicity here, I am just showing one. Read more

Update on Severe Weather Expectations Today

SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE TODAY!!!  See below for an extended write up!


If you checked in several days back, I had been talking about some severe weather possibilities for this weekend.  Here we are on the day this event is supposed to happen.

Just last evening, the SPC had put out a 10% probability of Tornadoes in IA & E NE, and 5% for Southern MN.  That refers to the odds of tornadoes in the vicinity of any given point based on mileage.  Anyways–that number has since been reduced again today.

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Labor Day weekend Severe Weather?

Potential Severe Weather this weekend!

Thanks for checking in!

The title isn’t meant to scare you, but we do have the possibility of some Severe Weather this weekend in the Upper Midwest & Minnesota–particularly on Sunday. It still is a bit of a ways out, but it is worth watching. The interesting thing to note is that this potential event has come up on the day 4-8 Outlook from SPC (Storm Prediction Center)–for both Day 5 and Day 4. The next day or so should provide more clarity on the situation. The wording of Supercells and Tornadoes has come up, and it surely has generated a bit of buzz.

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Wild Weather Continues


Many of you probably have Spring fever right now–and rightfully so, as it is Spring–on the calendar at least.  We have been above normal this week by a slight bit, with the exception of yesterday when we were quite a bit above normal.  We are about to get some active weather leading us into the weekend, and we may even conclude the weekend with some snow.  Don’t put away the shovel yet, as that may not be our only chance.  Last year we were shoveling in May, so I guess it isn’t anything new.

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March 2014: The Blog is Back!

Hello Friends and Followers!

I took a long absence from the blog (last post was October 2013), as I have had a very full plate, and the tail end of the schooling has consumed me.  I thought today would be a good day to bring it back to highlight the weather for the week ahead.  As many of you have also noticed, I had been working on getting my new graphics rolled out–snowfall charts, 7-day forecasts, etc.  Unfortunately the blog became a victim of the balance of time.

Meteorological Spring started on March 1st, but traditionally we have to wait until the third week of March, when the suns rays are directly over the equator.

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Two storm chances next week–changes likely in forecast!!


The models have been hinting at two large storms next week–or, what we are really seeing is the likelihood of one large storm in multiple waves, split up like two separate storms.   These are generally impulses that spin up off of the main low pressure center—so we usually see multiple waves.  This is fairly common of large storms of this nature.

The ECMWF runs yesterday were pulling the brunt of the storm over MN near Halloween, with a preliminary part of the storm on Tuesday.  Now, the normally reliable ECMWF seems to pull it further away on Halloween and after.

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Outlook for MN: First Snow Chances


You have probably been hearing of snow chances on your local news forecasts… and yes, it is looking more and more likely.

Change happens quickly in Minnesota this time of year.  We can go from late season severe weather to early season snowfall like the flip of a light switch.  For those of you that didn’t know, South Dakota and Wyoming have already been blasted by some early season snowfall–measured in FEET.  Some places got upwards of 4 or 5 feet, with drifts that buried homes, and killed over 100,000 animals/cattle.  We won’t see anything like that, but the first couple of snowfalls always seem to generate some buzz–and certainly some unwanted excitement on the roads.

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