Snowfall Potential: January 21st & 22nd 2018

Hi all- a Winter Storm has it’s sights on the Upper Midwest for the late weekend and into the early work week.

Here’s what we know:

• Someone has potential to get a lot of snow: What is a lot? Anywhere from 6-12″ or more.
• This storm will come out of the Rockies: Bringing out ahead of it- a lot of warm air- which we are currently experiencing.
• Afterwards: We cool down again.
• The snow will be HEAVY: Heavy wet snow- aka ‘Concrete Snow’

What we don’t know, yet:

• The exact track of the system: This will be one of those situations where the track of the low is crucial because warm air will be such a huge factor in this storm.
• How much dry air will get wrapped into the system: The dreaded ‘dry-tongue’ has potential to make an appearance on this one.
• How much mixed precipitation will fall: As always- mixed precipitation can impact snowfall totals, significantly, resulting in Boom or Bust scenarios.

Here are some maps, charts and fun graphics for your viewing pleasure:

Also- a general reminder- anyone posting totals maps this early on- it’s generally a huge risk, as so much can change. For anyone that does take the risk, just know that outside of 48 hours, a lot of error potential exists.

**For the purposes of demonstration- I will show the Euro and NAM here- but there are so many more to consider, but I could take screenshots all evening. The GFS shows similarities also**

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Surface Low Tracks:

Here is a chart showing potential areas where this low could eject out of the Rockies/Colorado. It is a Day 1-3 Graphic, so beyond that, it isn’t showing much yet, in terms of potential tracks.

NAM from Tropical Tidbits: GIF of storm potential…

The heaviest snow tends to fall where 850mb temps are about -2 to -6 Celcius:

Euro Model:

NAM:

Moisture advecting towards the low:

Dewpoints will be near 50-55F as close as Central Illinois. This will help bring more moisture into the system.

Euro Model:

NAM:

Relative Humidity:

Needs to be above 90% between 1000mb and 500mb in the atmosphere.

1000 Mb:

Euro Model:

The white- as you can see on the legend represents nearly 100%

925Mb:

Euro Model: 

The white- as you can see on the legend represents nearly 100%

NAM:

850mb:

 

NAM:

700mb:

Euro Model:

NAM:

500mb:

Euro Model:

This one shows some dry air trying to work into the system at the mid/upper levels…

NAM:

Jet Stream:

A couple of Jet Streaks depicted on this map, with general areas of lift, circled in red. The lift helps aid convection and precipitation formation/moisture condensing into clouds.

Euro Model:

NAM:

Overall- a lot to watch with this system. Generally- anyone throwing out large numbers in advance is hyping up the storm. Realistically, I can see some totals maps starting to roll out tomorrow that may have a touch of decency with them. But remember- this storm is still off the CA coast- and has a long way to go- over 2000 miles. Friday evening into Saturday should reveal A LOT more about this storm. For now- I will post this graphic again for the general area that really could see a solid storm.

For General Radar, Extended Forecast Details and Current Conditions, don’t forget to download my app!

As always- don’t forget to follow me on Twitter @BoKnowsWeather and Instagram @BoKnowsWeather also….

COMING SOON– my new website. So stay tuned for updates on that. I was hoping to have it up by now, but I’ve been so busy at work, that I have had trouble wrapping it up in time.

Thanks for checking in.

-Meteorologist Bohdan Cole